Goldman Sachs Calls Bitcoin Bottom, Sees April Recovery
In a research note distributed to institutional clients on Thursday, Goldman Sachs digital assets research team has issued what may be the most bullish near-term call from a major Wall Street bank this year, arguing that Bitcoin has likely established a local bottom near $65,000 and is positioned for a recovery toward $80,000 by the end of April.
The note, authored by the bank head of digital assets research Mathew McDermott and his team, cites a confluence of on-chain metrics, institutional positioning data, and historical pattern analysis to support the thesis. The call comes at a time when broader market sentiment remains deeply negative, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sitting at an extreme fear reading of 9.
Key Arguments for the Bottom Call
Goldman analysts outlined several factors supporting their view that the worst of the current sell-off is behind us:
- Institutional accumulation: Proprietary flow data from Goldman prime brokerage desk shows that institutional clients have been net buyers of Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs for six consecutive trading days, even as prices declined
- On-chain exhaustion metrics: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen below 1.0, indicating that holders are selling at a loss on average, a condition that has historically preceded market rebounds
- Funding rates: Perpetual futures funding rates across major exchanges have turned negative, suggesting that bearish positioning is overcrowded and vulnerable to a short squeeze
- Miner capitulation signals: The Hash Ribbon indicator, which tracks miner profitability, has entered its recovery phase after a brief capitulation period
"The combination of extreme fear sentiment, institutional accumulation, and oversold technical conditions creates a setup that has historically resolved to the upside within two to four weeks," the Goldman note stated.
The $80,000 Target
Goldman base-case price target of $80,000 by end of April represents approximately a 20% upside from current levels. The target is derived from a model that incorporates ETF flow projections, options market positioning, and historical price behavior following similar sentiment extremes.
The bank notes that the $65,000 level has served as a significant demand zone in the spot market, with large limit buy orders clustered between $64,000 and $66,000 on major exchanges. Additionally, the options market shows significant call option open interest at the $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices for April and May expiries, which could create positive gamma effects as prices approach those levels.
Risks to the Thesis
The Goldman team acknowledged several risks that could invalidate their bullish outlook. A significant escalation in the Iran conflict that triggers broader risk-off selling across all asset classes would be the primary downside risk. Additionally, a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data could delay the projected recovery.
A sustained break below $63,000 on a daily closing basis would invalidate the bottom call and potentially open the path to the $55,000 to $58,000 range, which Goldman identifies as the next major demand zone.
Wall Street Consensus
Goldman call is somewhat contrarian relative to the current Wall Street consensus. JPMorgan has maintained a neutral stance on crypto, while Morgan Stanley recent note described the risk-reward as "balanced" at current levels. Standard Chartered remains the most bullish major bank with a year-end 2026 Bitcoin target of $150,000, though their analysts have acknowledged that the geopolitical environment has pushed back the timeline for their bullish scenario.
For retail and institutional investors weighing their positioning, the Goldman note serves as a notable data point from one of the most influential voices on Wall Street, though as always, past patterns and analyst projections are not guarantees of future performance.
